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Dear Joshua,
" unknowable. Nonetheless I remain convinced that path-dependence is an
important phenomenon in economics."
Well, don't we an quantitative intellectuals owe it to ourselves to show
this quantitatively? How important? How big?
" Some instances that I would suggest (but can't prove) would include: (1)
the localization of manufacturing in the American Northeast--especially New
England--during the early nineteenth century. Would this have happened
without the Embargo, and War of 1812 which created interests intent on
promoting tariff protection for the region? I doubt it."
Huh? Water power? Educated workforce? Closeness to Europe (hundreds of
miles closer by great circle navigation than Virginia)? Commercial and
shipping development? (<lumber)
(2) Slavery and
the development of the southern economy. The legal recognition of slavery
in the South after the Revolution and its limitation to that region had
profound impacts on the American economy. Who can say if these instances
Granted, but is this a lockin? Slavery existed in the North until
startlingly late. Slavery was not controversial in most circles until
well into the 19th century. The South was suited to plantationable crops,
especially sugar (as in the West Indies and Brazil) and, to a lesser
degree, cotton.
Anyway, we can't do economic history with existence theorems. We need
numbers.
Regards,
Deirdre
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